Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Don't wait for the Pandemic to then go shopping for these. During the SARS scare they were on backorder worldwide for over three-months:

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Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

POSTED ON APRIL 19, 2006:
Not Just for the Birds
Is Idaho's bird flu plan pandemic preparedness or fowl play?
By Peter Wollheim

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Erin Ruiz

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When it comes to vulnerability to a possible bird flu outbreak, Idaho appears to be perched low on the infection pecking order. With only two large chicken houses, the state's Idaho Pandemic Influenza Response plan (IPIR) in place, and significant geographic distance from worldwide migratory bird routes, the state seems comfortably removed from contagion by the H5N1 virus.

But Dr. Uwe Rieschl, the head of Boise State's Center for Health Policy, estimates the chances of a bird flu pandemic reaching Idaho as "a definite maybe." For a true pandemic to threaten high rates of population mortality, Rieschl said, a new virus would have to meet three conditions simultaneously: lack of human antibodies, the ability to "easily jump" from another species to humans, and "easy transmission" from one person to another. For these three conditions the best answer is "yes, no, and 'not that we know of.'"

Yet Rieschl worries. This virus, he said, "has a propensity for mutation. It loves to mutate," and could take on a form similar to the one that produced the lethal worldwide epidemics of 1918, 1957-58 and 1969-70. Rieschl remains certain that "the clock is ticking, but we have no idea of what time it is" in terms of H5N1 crossing the bird-human barrier. And then, even if it does, he points out that the new strain might not be highly contagious.

"From an agricultural standpoint, Idaho is probably somewhat less vulnerable than a lot of other states." said Wayne Hoffman, spokesman for the Idaho Department of Agriculture. Hoffman said the IDOA has been actively cooperating with the Centers for Disease Control and, World Health Organization and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as well as the state and federal agencies responsible for homeland security. The state is working with the USDA on the development of a national tracking program that could speed up identification of flocks of poultry but not individual birds.

Hoffman advises concerned citizens to read the Idaho Pandemic Influenza Response Plan, now posted on the Department of Health and Welfare's Web page. The document, drawn largely from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Centers for Disease Control, defines responsibilities for pre-pandemic and pandemic services for federal, state and local governments, as well as roles for businesses and volunteer (including faith-based) organizations. The plan grimly acknowledges that previous influenza plagues killed up to 500,000 Americans and caused "more than 50 million deaths worldwide." Although the plan aims to assure no more than "a 30 percent workforce absentee rate," it does not specify financial outlays or anticipated costs in case of an outbreak.

Hoffman said he is unconcerned that if bird flu lands in Idaho, overlapping agencies might create the kinds of bureaucratic impasses and turf wars that characterized the Hurricane Katrina situation. "There are animal health emergency response plans already in place that would help us respond to any number of animal health emergencies," Hoffman said. "From our standpoint, our individual responsibilities as agencies of state government are very clear. If high pathogenic AI is identified in domestic poultry, the state would work cooperatively with USDA to contain and eradicate the disease."

University of Idaho virologist Kurt Gustin would like to see improved surveillance in terms of a better tracking system for individual birds. "Migratory birds are a major reservoir for transmission of this virus, and there are a lot of birds out there," he said. As to if and when the H5N1 virus could jump from birds to humans, Gustin shrugs. "It's anybody's guess."
Jack Merrill is the head of the Idaho Poultry Industry Federation and Merrill Poultry Farm in Paul, which has been in business since 1924. Merrill's operation supplies some 70,000 breeding chickens per year. Merrill has had meetings with DOA officials, and thinks that "we're pretty safe."

"Most of the producers have set up a controlled system so that the biosecurity is pretty tight," Merrill said. "We're all pretty good in terms of not letting strangers or wild birds on the place, and pretty safe in terms of keeping the flu out." Citing previous poultry infections on the East and West coasts, Merrill said some concern is healthy, "but I think it's a long ways from a flu pandemic."

Among the measures that Idaho officials would take in the event of an outbreak is the slaughter of all members of any infected flock. Merrill said the government has mentioned possible compensation to him, but not in any detail. "But if the flu hits, all the birds will be dead the next day, so you're not going to get a lot of warning about it," he said. Merrill stresses that cooking poultry and eggs effectively kills the virus.

"I'm a long ways from being an expert at this," Merrill said. "But the biggest thing to me is the public's fear of what might be, rather than what actually is. I'm more concerned about eating a duck or a goose this year rather than a chicken or an egg."

Rieschl also said there's a big difference between planning for time- and space-limited natural disasters like earthquakes and hurricanes, and pandemics. "The outbreaks will not be a short event but will come in two or three waves, lasting one to two years," Rieschl said. "The pandemic will not impact the country in a regional or local way but will be nationwide, so that we can't just shift resources from one part of the country to another." Such an event would affect groceries and other supplies, Rieschl said, as well as key infrastructure personnel.

Bird flu planning, of course, is not without its critics. In Spirit Lake, Ingri Cassell sees in the government's plans an attempt to establish "medical martial law" by hyping a contrived emergency. Cassell, a contributor to the conservative newspaper Idaho Observer, refers to Dr. Sherri J. Tenpenny, an Ohio-based physician who maintains a Web site, birdfluhype.com, that takes regular pot-shots against bird flu pandemic talk.

"I have a strong suspicion of what our government is up to" in terms of pandemic planning, Tenpenny told BW. "This is an environmental crisis more than a health care crisis."

Conspiracy or not, Rieschl said the basic precautions remain the simplest: "Eat well, drink five or six glasses of water a day, and get lots of rest."

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Your going to need a lot more than that to be safe Book.
read "The Great Influenza" By Barry.
Those masks didn't do anything in 1918.

Now if you plan to stock up so you can sell them to all the panicing sheep.... nother story

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

The Airlines should be handing these out with every ticket now. Ever notice that you can't "open the window" during flight?

Ok Mr. Melbo...share with us what you learned by reading The Great Influenza and then make some more suggestions please.
:call: [dialing 411]

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Thats not the only mask for the bird flu try the 3M P100 and P95 they filter out 99% and 95% respectively. You will find there is a large supply of both types of mask offered. Try your locale safety supply house. The public is not taking this serious so you can still find a large inventory of mask. Also try the 3M 6000 SERIES half-mask with the P100 HEPA FILTERS cost around $20.00 w/1 set of filters.:wavey:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Again....... the bird flue was discovered in Viet Nam nine years ago and since that date only 100 people have die or it......those that die all were in direct contact with the birds.

Only thing that worries me is that the US for some reason made it stronger. why? I have no ideas.

Also the US brought back to life the bug from 1918 and neither do I have any idea as to why.......... the reason that they gave is that they wanted to find a vaccine in case it ever came back to life.....?????????????? oh well.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Let me say this:

Make sure you buy the right mask!

Not all masks are teh same. Most masks worn in the OR (for example) are designed to protect the patient, not the wearer.

The 3M N95 mask is a great mask and fairly economical for what you get... the best way to tell is to make sure it is rated for TB exposure. Any mask rated for TB will be 100% against anything person to person transmitted.

I have plenty of regular OR masks (remember where I spend half my time ;) ), but I won't be wearing those come bird flu.

Oh yeah, in a big bird flu outbreak I (like an extimated 40% of my field) won't be showing up to work.

Keep that in mind and get some medical supplies and skills ASAP, if you think ER waits are long now, wait until (atleast) 40% of the staff is AWOL. :eek:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I've been travelling in and out of Romania (5 miles from one of the bird flu areas) for months. They spray cars in and out. Everyone eats chickens. Nobody appears to be dying.

I'm all for precations, people, but really!!!

It has been the talk for MONTHS, and nothing has happened? Scare mongering? Why? Taking our minds off other stuff going on??

Does anyone, know anyone, who knows anyone, who has died of this?????????

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Getting people ready to accept the big one. I don't have anything but if 1/2-a-billion drop dead now I'll betcha the link will be direct.

Remember SARS ? See what economic impact it had ? Now multiply it by 100k, and how many people died from "it" ?

Search "Report From Iron Mountain".

Golden Regards
Uncle

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Didn't like 8 people die for SARS? I remeber the number was something insanely low like.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Gosh, wouldn't a quarantine delay the elections?

...Oh, and put the country under de facto martial law?

TS

Is that half box of Bisquick enough to get me through? ...Hmmm...

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Book, Not trying to kill your advice. It's just that i see it as a false sense of security. a mask like that is normally used to keep airborne and spittle droplets out of a wound or other opening. not the other way around.

For one, It's not air tight and so if you are in an area where H5N1 is airborn, what's keeping it from around the mask? Nothing.

In that book, they passed out hundreds of thousands of those masks and the wearers still died. Might be a good thing to put on those already infected?



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Probe: Flu Protection From Masks Unclear

By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical WriterThu Apr 27, 3:07 PM ET

If a worldwide flu epidemic strikes, don't reuse a face mask � and don't assume, either, that it will offer a lot of protection, the Institute of Medicine said Thursday.
That's the bottom line from an anxiously awaited probe requested by the government as it stockpiles supplies in case a flu pandemic begins.
If it does, millions undoubtedly will turn to masks, raising a dilemma for the prestigious scientific organization: There's little evidence about whether masks truly block the influenza virus � and if they can, just how much protection they offer.
Without that information, wearing masks might spur a false sense of security, perhaps encouraging people to go into crowds or near infected patients when instead they should have stayed away.
"We don't want to say, 'Don't use it,' but don't expect to be fully protected if you do use it. That's a tough public health message to get out," said Dr. Donald Burke, a professor of international health at Johns Hopkins University who co-chaired the IOM panel.
Hence, "respiratory protection is the last resort to control infectious spread," the report notes.
Health workers use masks � simple surgical masks or better-filtering ones called N95 respirators � to keep from breathing their own germs onto vulnerable patients, and to protect themselves from specific respiratory diseases, such as tuberculosis.
The masks are supposed to be used once and discarded. Anticipating a staggering demand if the bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza sparks a pandemic, the Department of Health and Human Services asked if such masks could be reused, to conserve supplies.
No, the IOM report concludes.
"We're not surprised," said William Raub, who oversees emergency preparedness at HHS, which has placed an initial order of 150 million masks for a national stockpile.
"While masks have a role to play, we must discourage people from an undue reliance on them," he added.
The report shows the government should buy more, said Jeff Levi of the advocacy group Trust for America's Health. Much smaller France, he said, has ordered 200 million N95 masks.
Raub said officials would reconsider federal stockpile levels once the initial order was in, but that hospitals and state officials should be stockpiling their own masks, too.
The bigger question is one the government didn't ask: If different masks really block influenza, the IOM panel noted, calling for urgent study of that issue.
Flu can spread three ways:
_By hand. Someone sneezes into his hand and then grabs a doorknob that you touch, or shakes your hand.
_By large droplets of virus, if someone is in the direct path of a sneeze or cough. Those heavy droplets fall quickly to the ground.
_By tiny particles, which can stay suspended in the air for far longer periods.
No one knows which of those methods is most important.
But, the IOM said, surgical masks aren't designed to block tiny airborne particles, just larger ones. Thus, they probably would be of most use when worn by infected patients, to help cover coughs and sneezes.
While the N95 respirators haven't been tested to see how effectively they block flu virus specifically, they are designed to block small particles and would be a logical choice for health workers. But N95s must be individually fitted to users' faces so that air doesn't seep into the sides, a problem for men with facial hair. Also, they come only in certain sizes, with none for children, and they're uncomfortable to breathe in for long periods.
Regardless, if someone with flu sneezes on any mask wearer, the outside is contaminated, so users must remove them carefully to avoid infecting themselves, the IOM panel stressed.
More expensive reusable masks do exist, but there is no good way to decontaminate and reuse surgical masks and standard disposable N95s, the panel concluded.
It listed one exception: Someone could reuse his or her own N95 if the outside were protected from surface exposure, such as by placing a disposable surgical mask over it, stored it carefully to avoid creases or damage, and the user thoroughly washed hands before and after removal and rechecked the fit with each wearing.
What about using a handkerchief or some other improvised mask? They're not likely as protective as even a surgical mask might be, but the panel hesitated to discourage use � assuming that some protection would be better than none. Generally, the tighter the fabric weave, the better.
___
On the Net:
Institute of Medicine: http://www.iom.edu

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I posted this in the FS forum over at FSquirrels. Donno if anyone here is interested:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I found a very good site on protection here @ safetycompany.com

edit: N95 masks are not enough to protect yourself according to that link.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

The 1918 Spanish Flu was a real proving ground for homeopathic remedies. Scoffers and detractors could not abide the remedial benefits of homeopathics in treating the Flu. During this era, the largest hospital in Philadelphia was Hanneman Hospital, named after Samuel Hanneman MD.

Homeopathic remedies are non-prescription and effective. Your local healthfood store likely carries a basic selection. Two books; Materia Medica and Kent's Repertory are the principle references. Browse these, or buy them and learn how to "take the case" and how to employ homeopathics.

A strong immune system is also going to be of benefit. Diet will build your immune system. Macrobiotics is an eating regimen or diet that is specifically focused on the body's curative properties for overcoming disease and illness. Organic foods, specifically short grained Brown Rice and Adzuki beans, along with dark Miso soups and several inexpensive vegetables and seaweed varieties will build your immune system very quickly.

Yet, unless you have the homeopathic remedies and foods you will need, in advance, they likely won't be readily available.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

It may be that the ones with the strongest imune system will be the most vunerable. This particular virus, H5N1 causes the imune system to attack the healthy cells in the body. I will remain an advocate for good health, but not be deceived that if the bird flu mutates to a human virus, good health will certainly be worse for infected folks with greater than average imune systems.
William S Cook

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

The interesting thing about flus is apparently they raise the chance of heart attacks while you're ill, and it doesn't matter what your age category is!

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I seriously hope you guys realize the bird flu scare was nothing but overblown msm lies and sensationalizism. Utter nonsense. "H5N1," as I have explained a great many times before, is not even a virus. It is a whole family of hundreds of viruses the vast majority of which are harmless and many can't even infect more than one or two birds species, never mind humans. Finding the dreaded "H5N1 virus" among a population of birds is exactly identical to finding the common cold among a population of humans. That is to say, normal, expected and not at all a threat. Think about it guys, no matter if you believe in evolution or creation birds have been on this planet longer than humans. They have been flying around all over the place all the while carrying this super scary pandemic and nothing has happened. Or will happen. Unplug the teevee.

If there is any real threat to bird flu at all it is that it will be used as an imaginary boogeyman to kill off privately owned flocks and ram through NAIS in a bid to gain a monopoly on food production.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Thanks REV127
Your information was needed most in 1918 when tens of millions of people worldwide that were exposed to a similar H5N1 strain of flu did not get well, in fact they died from the flu. Theorist at that time also considered it to be a govenment conspiracy for some inane purpose. To the people that died it was real.
William S Cook
Orlando, FL

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

"Most government authorities recommend at least an N95 class respirator (P2) that also must pass individual fit testing.

In S.E.A.'s opinion, this advice is somewhat puzzling, for several reasons:

* Many N95 (P2) respirators are of the 'filtering face piece' type (see picture above). It is doubtful whether such a face piece can be fit tested with any degree of accuracy.
* In standards testing, an N95 (class P2) respirator is allowed to leak up to 5%. Whether five precent leakage is an 'accpetable risk' when it comes to a deadly virus is debatable.
* Viruses are extremely small particles. The avian influenza virus is about 0.1 micrometre in diameter. When it is being carried in dust or spray, the particle size ranges from about 1 to 10 micrometres. It is unclear whether an N95 class mask can be used with confidence against such small particles.
* N95 (P2) filters are often of the electrostatic type. This means that the efficiency of the filter is significantly affected by temperature, humidity, water spray and oil mist. In a poultry-house with suspected influenza-sick birds, the workplace is likely to be hot, humid and wet from decontamination and cleaning."

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Gee, I hope the government will protect us from this horrible threat!
Please tell us what to do? I'm so worried. NOT!

I don't play into this game of fear or any fear they dish out.
A nation in fear is easy to manipulate and control!

Anyone that has been establishing a emergency store of goods should have a couple of boxes of masks and some imodium. After that, fagettaboudit!
If you have been building your supplys, you know it takes time to collect things you never thought about. No need to go overboard...the best thing you can prepare is your mind!

Don't take your eye off the ball reguarding inflation and the scumbags that are robbing your wealth. Do something about that...buy gold!

Save the flu pandemic drama for your momma!

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Uh, no it didn't. The Spanish Flu was an H1N1 virus which is always present in populations of a number of different species including humans. In fact H1N1 viruses are responsible for about half of all flu cases. The conjecture that the Spanish Flu was bird-related only popped up in 2005 or so, at the height of the bird flu scare when there was more money to be made off it.

If you want to be scared of imaginary boogeymen you should at least stay current. Right now Islamo-fascist terrorists are the horror of the day.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

ROTFLOL,:haha: Are you are serious? Are you really afraid of the "bird flu??" I know some of you all that are older than me the remember the "Swine Flu" that was going to kill everyone in the 1970's? :smokin:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Oh wow... and if memory serves it was then followed up in the late 70's/early 80's with a terrorist scare! bwahahahahaha! :D

People have short memories and TPTB have no imagination. :haha:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

We're all going to die! We're all going to die! The little birdys are going to kill us all! Anyone they don't get the towel heads in their donkey carts are going to get us.:haha::sheep::sheep:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Can anyone dispute any of these facts:

1. Flu viruses can be very serious.
2. Flu viruses regularly mutate into more deadly and less deadly versions.
3. Serious flu pandemics have occurred regularly in the past.
4. Some versions of the flu kill elderly, young children and those in poor health.
5. Some versions of the flu kill very healthy people.
6. Like predictions of major snowfall, predictions of flu outbreaks rarely come true - it's the sneaker snow storms that really dump and the sneaker viruses that really kill. The 1918 flu wasn't predicted.
7. The bird flu mutation (jump to humans) could occur tomorrow, or not for 1000 years.
8. Some other sneaker version of the flu may go pandemic before the bird flu ever becomes a problem.
9. The more crowded people are on earth, the greater the chance of a pandemic.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I'm not afraid of any flu. It's an interesting survival scenario.

The main reason I'm buying a rs100 mask is for renovating an apartment, LOL.

Why should I be scared of anything?

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Nope. Can you dispute these facts?

1. Any number of bad things could possibly happen
2. At just about any time
3. For all kinds of different reasons
4. If your auntie had balls she'd be your uncle

Some things that are possible just aren't horribly likely.

A good reason to own a gas mask, based on greater likelihoods, is to protect yourself from teargas. The cops are pretty free with the stuff anymore, if a riot or demonstration happens nearby you may get caught up in it. If the retards from the SWAT team get the wrong address again or just decide you have more pumpkin pies and whipped cream than the law allows it could be handy. Plus all kinds of home improvement and other projects involving dust or vapors.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

#1. The flu virus is only a danger to immunocomprimised people, and those eating a crappy diet who are malnourished and have vitamin deficiency's (such as people who eat a standard american diet) I for one have NEVER had the flu.
#2. Sure, but see #1 again.
#3 Flu pandemics have never been regular. Otherwise they would be highly predictable. In fact the only big ones I could find on record were
1 Spanish Flu (1918–1920)
2 Asian Flu (1957–1958)
3 Hong Kong Flu (1968–1969)

Coincidentally when vaccine programs were starting to become popular.

#4- Yeah see #1 again
#5- Nope, see #1 again
#6- LOL, I thought you said flu out breaks are regular, so if they are regular they must be predictable. RIght?
#7- No, it is not going to mutate. Just like the Swine flu never mutated, the only people who got sick from the swine flus were... drum roll, soldiers at one fort that received it in an immunization. It is scientifically impossible for it to mutate.
#8- Who cares? If your healthy you won't get sick.
#9- It has nothing to do with being crowded. It has to do with globalisim and how we travel, etc.

This is fun. I like playing this game. :tongue_ma:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I have a 10 pack on hand for immediate use . . . totally serious!

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I think you need to look at the background noise and filter it out.

How many cases of flu in the US, to say nothing of Asia, end in death? With debatable numbers, the vaccine companies claim 36,000. This is the Common Flu.

Wiki: "Most people who get influenza will recover in one to two weeks, but others will develop life-threatening complications (such as pneumonia). According to the World Health Organization: "Every winter, tens of millions of people get the flu. Most are home, sick and miserable, for about a week. Some—mostly the elderly—die. We know the world-wide death toll exceeds a few hundred thousand people a year..."

How many people were exposed to the Bird Flu compared to overall deaths? I propose that the Bird Flu was LESS deadly than the common flu using these numbers.

The Spanish Flu was not bird flu, but supposedly a swine flu from an outbreak near a US Base. Pigs and humans are far closer in type. If you worry about Bird flu, the world is filled with viruses from EVERY species on earth, and they are ALL mutating at the same rate. Over the last 100 years, none of them have caused much harm.

Even the proponents of the Bird Flu theory say that IF it crosses between bird species, and IF it becomes deadly, and IF it crosses from birds to humans AND is still deadly AND is airbourne-spread, THEN it would be an epidemic. No kidding. That's like saying if I shot an arrow around the globe and it threaded a needle, that would be cool. It WOULD be cool, but it will never happen except by blind, luck on century-long odds.

Until then, it's just another boring, slightly-irritating bug, like every other bug on earth.

So...if it's not truly dangerous, even by their own numbers/admission, then how did it suddenly get so much public promotion? And why?

TS

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Some flus are very dangerous. We have yet to see a really bad one, bird flu is pretty bad, I think I read a possible 7% mortality rate (if you can't get decent treatment. ie. third world scenario). We are in fact overdue for a pandemic, better hygene worldwide has probably prevented it somewhat, or we've just been lucky and flu viruses haven't mutated much yet into a very dangerous strain.

Can you imagine a million people dying a week, for 28 weeks!?? Well, it happened.

As a healthy person of any age, you are still susceptible to dying from flu! Obviously the very young, very old and infirm who have relatively weak immune systems suffer a higher mortality rate. Flu raises your chance of heart attack at any age due to the additional stresses on the body during infection. The main thing is hydration, and not just drinking water, but
re-hyrates and electrolytes.


Spanish flu was quite deadly (1918-1919). You have to keep in mind the lack of knowledge about viruses and the relatively poor hygene of the day:

The most famous and lethal outbreak was the so-called Spanish flu pandemic (type A influenza, H1N1 subtype), which lasted from 1918 to 1919. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Patterson1_0>[17]</SUP> while current estimates say 50 million to 100 million people worldwide were killed.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Knobler_0>[18]</SUP> This pandemic has been described as "the greatest medical holocaust in history" and may have killed as many people as the Black Death.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Potter_1>[16]</SUP> This huge death toll was caused by an extremely high infection rate of up to 50% and the extreme severity of the symptoms, suspected to be caused by cytokine storms.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Patterson1_1>[17]</SUP> Indeed, symptoms in 1918 were so unusual that initially influenza was misdiagnosed as dengue, cholera, or typhoid. One observer wrote, "One of the most striking of the complications was hemorrhage from mucous membranes, especially from the nose, stomach, and intestine. Bleeding from the ears and petechial hemorrhages in the skin also occurred."<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Knobler_1>[18]</SUP> The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Taubenberger_1>[13]</SUP>

The Spanish flu pandemic was truly global, spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. The unusually severe disease killed between 2 and 20% of those infected, as opposed to the more usual flu epidemic mortality rate of 0.1%.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Taubenberger_2>[13]</SUP><SUP class=reference id=_ref-Knobler_2>[18]</SUP> Another unusual feature of this pandemic was that it mostly killed young adults, with 99% of pandemic influenza deaths occurring in people under 65, and more than half in young adults 20 to 40 years old.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-9>[19]</SUP> This is unusual since influenza is normally most deadly to the very young (under age 2) and the very old (over age 70). The total mortality of the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but it is estimated that 2.5% to 5% of the world's population was killed. As many as 25 million may have been killed in the first 25 weeks; in contrast, HIV/AIDS has killed 25 million in its first 25 years.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Knobler_3>[18]</SUP>
Later flu pandemics were not so devastating. They included the 1957 Asian Flu (type A, H2N2 strain) and the 1968 Hong Kong Flu (type A, H3N2 strain), but even these smaller outbreaks killed millions of people. In later pandemics antibiotics were available to control secondary infections and this may have helped reduce mortality compared to the Spanish Flu of 1918.<SUP class=reference id=_ref-Taubenberger_3>[13]</SUP>


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#History

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Yes, Spanish Flu was deadly and unexpected. However, in history these events are vanishing rare.

We have

Small Pox, perhaps jumping from Camel Pox
Bubonic Plague, jumping from a rodent-cycle
Spanish Flu, perhaps from pigs.
AIDS, still in question, but perhaps from monkeys

Syphyllis, if you want to count it.

And...That's it going back to the mists of time, through the Roman international trading, the Venitian Merchants, China. 4 epidemics in 3,000 years. I dont' think we can predict the next incidence on so few data points.

If you want, we can include ebola, the Asian Flu, etc. That would still probably give us 50 data points, and I'm not sure you could predict a pattern with any reliability, much less guess WHICH virus will jump and the medium of contagion. It's absolutely possible, even probable. Just as I know SOMEONE betting red 40 at the Bellagio will actually win that bet. But I can never know walking in which person will hit it. Unless I can get closer than that, it's not worth my time, especially when there are real, predictable, and verifiable events that I can prepare for, and which include the sorts of preparations I'd make if a Bird Flu-like even were to occur.

For a kicker, I wish I had time to look up every flu that's at the 7% mortality rate. I'll bet there's more than a few we never heard about before or since. Why's this one so special?

Verifiably, hospital bugs and mistakes take more lives than 7%. Why don't we do something there, where we have a sitting target?

TS

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I'm reading The Great Bird Flu HOAX, by Dr. Joseph Mercola. The bird flu hoax is all about fear and scare tactics. And selling us billions in vaccines. It's pure BS.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

DO your research before posting

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Anyone disagree here with buying these masks for protection from airborne cooties?

:dontknow:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

That viewpoint totally ignores evidence and facts. The virus that caused the 1918 pandemic was a new mutation hatched in pigs and birds that made the jump to humans. If you believe it was done to benefit business - or that it cannot happen again - you would benefit from more research on the facts.

There is nothing imaginary about this bogeyman! H5N1 is a very specific virus that apparently jumped to birds in China and the birds are spreading it all over the world. Each outbreak in birds increases the chance that a new variant will find a happy host in a human and a mutation there will spread it easily to another person. As long as it stays in birds, it is manageable. The danger is that - like 1918 - it won't.

With a current H5N1 mortality rate over 50%, the economic damage will be the very least of our worries.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

It is a fact that H5N1 has been primarily a bird to bird virus.
It is a fact that it has jumped to humans in over three hundred instances.
It is a fact that over two hundred of those infected humans haved died.
It is a fact that the flu virus continues to mutate to insure it's survival.
It has the potential IF it makes the mix to mutate with a common flu to cause the death of millions of people worldwide and cause teotwawki. Currently it has not caused many clusters of deaths, when reports of multiple clusters are infected I will head for the hills.
William S Cook
in Orlando

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Research and here's what I found:

Camelpox is the closest relative to Smallpox. I had read it was the ancestor, (I believe in "One Point Safe" but maybe elsewhere) but new genetic studies indicate instead that they have a common ancestor from a rodent pox in Asia. My mistake they were siblings and not decendents.

Bubonic Plague came from a rodent cycle with fleas. Is this not what I said?

Spanish Flu remains in scientific debate. Last best theory was that it came from Kansas as they had a Swine Flu epidemic near the Ft. Riley Army Base where thousands of pigs were incinerated under incomplete, unsanitary conditions. The story I read (Smithsonian?) was that area was covered in the smoke of it.

<i>"One theory is that the virus strain originated at Fort Riley, Kansas, by two genetic mechanisms � genetic drift and antigenic shift � in viruses in poultry and swine which the fort bred for local consumption. But evidence from a recent reconstruction of the virus suggests that it jumped directly from birds to humans, without traveling through swine.[11] On October 5, 2005, researchers announced that the genetic sequence of the 1918 flu strain, a subtype of avian strain H1N1, had been reconstructed using historic tissue samples."</i> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu However, note that the "Direct-bird" theory was not in favor until Asian Bird outbreak. Prior to that, the swine theory was favored. I last reviewed this before the Asian Bird was brought to prominence, but also before genetic coding was possible.

Although that's the common knowledge and a prominent theory, it may also be wrong: http://www.medicinenet.com/script/ma...ticlekey=54303
There is evidence that there were proto-flus around at the time. However, this article also shows it is well-known in China that birds may not infect humans, but can infect pigs, and pigs are close enough to infect humans. That supports the Ft. Riley Swine Flu theory. However, it is debated that it went from birds to humans and BACK to pigs. Apparently there's a lot we don't know or can't prove.

Intersting about splicing together pieces of the virus, however:

"CD_Speaker So far, scientists have learned the exact sequence of three of the eight genes of the 1918 flu, and to their surprise, they see nothing unusual. So far, the mystery of the 1918 flu remains a mystery."

That is, deadly as it was, it was genetically unremarkable. It looks like every other common flu. So what are they looking at if they have yet to see the crucial element? Is there a missing piece? Do they have the wrong agent? Also strange, it seemed to affect those in BEST health, from 20-40. No one knows why this was either.

AIDS: Well, I can't pick up this one either except to say it's SUPPOSED to come from monkeys. There's a lot of debate on HIV altogether: If it's so prevelant, why can't they distill HIV in a vial and therefore an inert HIV and vaccine? And why do so many people testing for HIV not develop Auto Immune Deficiency Syndrome? I'm sure people on the board have unorthodox theories about it, but I'm just giving the party-line origin on this one. Simian Immunodeficiency virus closely matches Human Immunodeficiency Virus: http://www.avert.org/origins.htm (an AIDS site)

I'm sorry if I offended you, as difference in our positions seems very small. My point was more that species-jumping epidemics are very, very rare.

TS

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

I would dispute one thing there.

The figures are (on Wikipedia) 331 instances of severe infection of with 203 dead between 2003 and 2007, something like a 61% death rate. This sounds incredibly high...

However, you must consider how many people have been infected and have no doubt gone unreported and recovered from this flu. This could be a very high number indeed, which if you look at in in that perspective, could reduce the death rate significantly.

Also, the countries where the infections and deaths have occurred (noteably primarily Indonesia, and Vietnam, which make up 215 of the known 331 infections), look like a who's who of a lack of medical facilities.

Vietnam and Indonesia have close person to avian contact which is the current requirement for transmission. The danger is of course, that the H5N1 will get into the human population in a big way and then mutate into a person-person transmissible virus. In a way this is unlikely as like Ebola, it kills the hosts so fast, it draws attention to itself, reduces the chance of mutation, if it lay dormant a while it would be far more lethal.

The other thing about it is it can sit in the bird population and mutate into other strains, so you might get sick, get well and get an immunity, then the next strain could hit you. More of a problem for bird handlers than the average person, unless it mutates into a human transmissible virus.

If you get sick in a developed nation you stand a far better chance of survival than in the third-world scenario.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1#Im..._human_society

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

Swineflu = bumb.

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

SSDD. :favorites8:

Re: Get Ready Now for the Bird Flu Pandemic
 

A dust mask for a virus is like hiding behind a screen door during a flood.

Particle size, man.